Brexit Possibilities Withdrawal Deal Withdrawal Agreement Ratified Withdrawal Agreement approved by EU & UK Government Rejected by Parliament three times and PM May resigned WA or variant may be ratified No deal Brexit on 31 October 2019 unless agreement or extension Deals only with Money, People, Transition and Backstop Accompanied by Political Declaration about Future Relationship Agreement on UK Financial Contribution to end 2020 Agreement on the status of EU and UK citizens in the UK and EU UK leaves EU almost immediately but a Transitional Period begins Transitional / Implementation Period to end 2020 May be extended by up to 1 or 2 years (decided by 30 June 2020) Future relationship to be negotiated in this period All EU rules continue to apply during this period The UK has observer status in EU institutions in this period The UK contributes to the EU budget in this period NI Backstop applies unless new agreement avoids hard NI border Read More Revoke / Remain No Brexit The UK may unilaterally withdraw the notice to leave The UK remains in the EU All laws remain the same Preserves all existing trade agreements Political implications Legitimacy issues A second referendum likely to be necessary Likely continuing debate about the relationship Read More No Deal Exit No Deal / \”Hard\” Brexit Still the default option Both under EU and UK law Due to take effect on 31st October 2019 Parliament seems opposed EU seems determined to avoid Involves a sudden big bang one time changes Numerous laws and trading rules change overnight Immediate customs duties Immediate customs processes and obligations Immediate regulatory controls Immediate cessation of single market rights Unpredictable unwinding and knock-on effects Negative economic effects very likely Read More The Backstop Backstop in Unapproved Withdrawal Agreement Contained in the unapproved Withdrawal Agreement Agreed by the EU and the UK Government Withdrawal Agreement rejected three times by Parliament A variant of it may be agreed Applies if future EU UK Agreement does not avoid NI hard border Applies if no EU UK Agreement at end Transition Period 2020 (+?) EU and UK must agree that test is met NI remains in EU Customs Union NI remains in most EU Single Market goods rules GB in customs partnership with EU GB in regulatory alignment with EU GB (not NI) could readily revoke these commitments No Financial Contributions Read More Future Relationships Trade Agreement An Economic Partnership/ Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement The UK Government’s preferred option Reflected in the EU UK future relationship declaration No customs duties on most goods Customs cooperation but declarations required on exports and imports Certificates of origin requirements Some regulatory checks The UK free to enter trade agreements with third countries – Higher alignment with the EU = reduced scope for /of trade agreements The UK has greater ability to regulate economic activity Level playing field rules/regulatory alignment likely No single market protections Some freedom of movement/mobility for workers Broad cooperation in important areas Limited freedom to provide services Facilitation of digital services Security partnership Cooperation in foreign-policy security and defence Read More Single Market Membership of the EEA Same relationship as Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein No customs duties on most goods Some Customs cooperation Declarations required for exports and imports UK freedom to enter trade agreements with third countries More extensive trade agreements v less EU alignment/harmonisation The UK becomes a rule-taker for many trade rules No / limited input into EU rule-making The UK remains in the single market EU free movement of persons and workers EU free movement of goods and investment Access to EU single market in services Subject to EFTA Court- indirectly binding Easily negotiated – EEA provides an existing template Read More Customs Partnership A customs union or partnership between the UK and EU The Labour Party policy No customs duties, customs controls nor origin checks Limited scope to enter trade agreements with third countries Greater power to regulate economic activity Level playing field rules/regulatory alignment No / very limited single market protections Broad cooperation in important fields Limited freedom to provide services Facilitation of digital services Read More Common Market 2.0 Customs Union plus Single Market Back to 1992 (more or less) Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein status Plus customs union No customs duties No declarations of origin or customs control No/ very limited freedom to enter trade agreements The UK largely a rule-taker of many trade rules Free movement of goods Free movement workers (plus other categories?) Free movement of investment Access to the single market in services retained EEA provides a template to a large extent EU likely to accept EEA plus Customs Union EFTA Court- indirectly binding Read More